Our Reports

General Fund Revenue Projections FY 2017 - FY 2020


Revenue projections are necessary for Connecticut to craft budgets, plan long-term projects, and determine whether new revenue sources, spending cuts, or increased taxes are necessary. Predicting incoming tax receipts accurately relies upon correctly forecasting economic growth and market performance. Connecticut periodically revisits and revises its revenue projections to take new data into account; as such, these projections are subject to change. These visualizations show the differences in revenue projections from FY 2017 to FY 2020.

Key Takeaways
  • From FY 2017 - FY 2020, projected revenue is expected to decrease. Unless taxes are increased or new revenue sources identified, FY 2017 is projected to be the year with the greatest revenue. Tax receipts will begin to recover from a massive drop in FY 2018 but are not projected to reach FY 2017 levels by FY 2020.
  • From FY 2017 - FY 2020, The greatest loss in revenue is attributed to the expected decline in sales tax revenue. Sales tax accounts for almost 25 percent of current revenue and is projected to decrease by a few hundred million dollars in FY 2018.
  • The state's greatest revenue source, the personal income tax, is predicted to increase in each fiscal year. Over half of all state revenue in FY 2017 was raised from the personal income tax. According to Office of Policy and Management and the Office of Fiscal Analysis, unrealized projected personal income tax receipts are the main cause of the current budget shortfall.
  • The size of the budget shortfall in FY 2017 was roughly $400 million. This is about the same as the projected decrease in revenue from FY 2017 to FY 2018.
Citation

Connecticut School Finance Project. (2017). General Fund Revenue Projections FY 2017 - FY 2020. Available from http://ctschoolfinance.org/reports/general-fund-revenue-projections-fy-2017-fy-2020.